Why Is the Dead Sea Shrinking? Causes and Fixes

Why is the Dead Sea shrinking? Mainly because far less fresh water now reaches it than evaporates from it. For thousands of years the Jordan River and smaller streams roughly balanced the sea's heavy evaporation. Since the mid twentieth century most of that inflow has been diverted for farms, towns and cities, while mineral industries at the southern end evaporate large volumes of Dead Sea water to extract potash and other salts. The result is a surface falling by roughly a metre a year.

The Dead Sea's shoreline is already the lowest land on Earth, at around 430 metres below sea level, and that figure gets lower every year. This article explains why the lake is so low and so salty, what is draining it, what the visible consequences are, and what has been proposed to stop the decline.

Why is the Dead Sea so low and so salty?

The Dead Sea lies in a deep trough along a major geological boundary, often called the Dead Sea Transform, where two pieces of the Earth's crust slide past each other. Movement along this fault has opened a long depression that runs from the Gulf of Aqaba north through the Jordan valley.

The lake has no outlet. Water flows in from the Jordan River and from side valleys, then leaves only by evaporation, which is intense in this hot, dry, sunken basin. Each litre that evaporates leaves its salts behind, so over a very long time the water has become extremely concentrated: around a third of it by weight is dissolved salt, roughly ten times saltier than the open ocean. That is why swimmers float so easily, and why almost nothing larger than microbes can live in it, which gives the sea its name in many languages. Earlier on the route, Djibouti has its own salt lake far below sea level, in the rifting Afar region; see our piece on Lake Assal, the lowest point in Africa.

What is draining the Dead Sea?

Scientists generally point to three linked causes.

• Diversion of the Jordan River and its tributaries. From the 1950s and 1960s onwards, countries across the basin built systems to take water for a growing population and for agriculture. Water is pumped from the Sea of Galilee (Lake Tiberias) for use in Israel, the Yarmouk River feeds Jordan's King Abdullah Canal along the eastern side of the valley, and dams in Syria and Jordan hold back the Yarmouk's flow. The lower Jordan River, which once carried a large volume of fresh water south, now delivers only a small fraction of its historical flow, much of it of poor quality.
• Mineral extraction. At the southern end of the sea, industries in both Israel and Jordan pump water into shallow evaporation ponds to harvest potash, magnesium and other minerals. Estimates of how much this adds to the decline vary, but it is a substantial share.
• A drying climate and rising demand. The region is among the most water-scarce in the world, and population growth, refugee arrivals and hotter conditions all increase pressure on every source.

The scale is striking. The water level has fallen by more than 30 metres since the 1960s. By the late 1970s the shallow southern basin had separated from the deeper northern one, and today that southern area exists mainly as a network of industrial ponds.

Sinkholes and a retreating shore

The most dramatic consequence is the appearance of sinkholes. As the sea retreats, layers of salt buried beneath the old shoreline are left behind. Fresh groundwater, flowing towards the lowering sea, dissolves those salt layers and leaves underground cavities, which can collapse suddenly. Thousands of sinkholes have now formed along both the eastern and western shores, damaging roads, farmland and tourist facilities, and making some stretches of coast unsafe to approach.

The retreat also changes the landscape in more ordinary ways. Hotels and beaches built at the water's edge decades ago now stand some distance from it, with steep, cracked mudflats in between. Freshwater springs and the small oases that depended on them along the shore have also been affected.

Who shares the Dead Sea?

The Dead Sea is bordered by Jordan on its eastern side. On its western side, the southern shore lies in Israel and the northern part of the shore lies in the West Bank, which has been occupied by Israel since 1967. That shared geography makes any long-term solution a matter for several governments and authorities, and it means that water in this basin is never only an environmental question.

Can the Dead Sea be saved?

The best-known proposal is a Red Sea to Dead Sea water conveyance: take seawater from the Gulf of Aqaba, desalinate part of it for drinking water, and send the remaining salty brine north to help stabilise the Dead Sea. Versions of this idea have been studied for decades. In 2013 Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority signed an agreement on a first phase, following feasibility studies supported by the World Bank, but the joint project stalled. Jordan has since prioritised a large desalination scheme at Aqaba to pipe drinking water north to Amman.

Scientists have also raised questions about mixing Red Sea water or brine with Dead Sea water in large volumes, including the risk of chemical reactions that could whiten the surface, and of algal blooms. Other ideas include restoring a meaningful flow to the lower Jordan River through better water management and treated wastewater, and reducing evaporation losses from industry. Most researchers agree that slowing the decline is possible in principle; restoring the sea to its mid twentieth century level is not realistic.

Why this matters on foot

Leon's walk is planned to cross Jordan from south to north, through some of the driest country on the entire route; you can see the provisional line on the route page. He hopes to see the Dead Sea as part of the Jordan chapter, not as a quick photograph of someone floating, but with people who study the basin and can explain what is changing. For a walker who has to plan water every single day, a sea losing a metre a year is a lesson that is hard to ignore. You can read how heat and water shape daily distances in how far can you walk in a day.

In every place he passes, the plan is for an act of kindness to be paid for and recorded on the kindness ledger. Find out who Leon is, follow the journal once he is walking, or support the walk.

Frequently asked questions

How fast is the Dead Sea shrinking?

Its surface is falling by roughly a metre a year, and it has dropped by more than 30 metres since the 1960s.

Will the Dead Sea disappear completely?

Unlikely. As it shrinks, its surface area falls and the water becomes saltier, which slows evaporation, so scientists expect it to shrink towards a new, much smaller balance rather than vanish.

Why are there sinkholes around the Dead Sea?

Fresh groundwater dissolves salt layers left behind by the retreating shoreline, creating underground cavities that can suddenly collapse.

Which countries border the Dead Sea?

Jordan to the east, and Israel and the West Bank to the west.